James Gordon
But while Trump certainly still has a chance to win, he will need a bigger ticket this year than in 2016 to win a second term.
Let’s be clear: I’m not saying Trump can’t win. No analyst worth his salt would say that. However, it would be foolish not to admit the obvious: On election day, the trump card is much worse than in 2016.
Let’s start with a basic idea of the current state of the elections in the largest states. Biden leads in all states, Hillary Clinton won 2016 with more than 5 points. It also anticipates the number of races Trump has won in 2016.
These include (in descending order from Bidenranden) Wisconsin, Michigan, 2. Congressional district of Nebraska, Pennsylvania, Arizona, 2. Congressional District of Maine, Florida, North Carolina, Georgia and Iowa.
If Biden had won all these matches, he would have gotten 357 votes in the elections. That’s a lot more than the 270 needed to win.
Of course, many of these tips can be found on the small page. Only the benefits of Biden in Wisconsin, Michigan, the 2nd The Nebraska and Pennsylvania District of Congress is at 5 points or more. The other 4 points or less at the moment.
But even if Biden had only won in the states where it led by 5 points or more, it would still have crossed the 270-member mark. In 2016, Clinton just disappeared.
Look at the Trump and Biden research from head to toe.
More interesting is what will happen if you look at the errors in a particular state that occurred in 2016. The errors were greatest in the states of the Great Lakes (rust belt). In the sunbelt they were usually much smaller.
As Nate Cohn noted in the New York Times, Biden would have received more than 300 votes if the mistakes of 2016 had been repeated in 2020. It’s not that Biden would still have a head start in some important countries with a bug-like 2016. However, it will be at least 2 points ahead of states with 270 votes if the survey errors are repeated exactly in 2016.
Now you can say that a lead of only 2 points is not that important. But keep in mind that Trump needs 2 extra error points on top of the already big mistake.
In other words, it will take a big brake to conquer the White House in 2020. This could happen, although it’s unlikely.
Chances are that the mistakes of 2020 will be less favourable for Trump. Historically, the correlation in the direction of research errors from year to year has been insignificant. And although the 2018 polls were not ideal, the chances of underestimating the average Republican position were much smaller than in 2016.
One can even assume that Biden will be undervalued in the polls. Don’t forget that Barack Obama outperformed the polls in 2012.
Moreover, Biden’s success compared to Clinton makes a lot of sense in terms of national polls.
Biden’s nine to ten points ahead of the country. In the last vote of 2016 Clinton scored 3-4 points and scored 2 points, which is a small mistake.
As I said, the great momentum we see in the combat zone is the kind of momentum we would expect if Biden was 5 points stronger than Clinton in 2016. Although each state has its own peculiarities, states generally do not move on their own. They change with the nation as a whole. That’s what we see.
In fact, I would be less sure of the results of the opinion polls if the national polls did not assume their accuracy. Previous calculations show that it is unlikely that Trump will win the electoral college if he loses more than 4-5 points on a national level. He will only become favourite if the difference in the country is less than 3 points.
The tramp’s not far from here now. To be able to do this, she again has to make a much larger research error than four years ago.
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James Gordon
