Realistically, in order to be able to pray at the college of football qualifications, UBO had to strengthen its calendar. In the toughest game of the season – Saturday in South Carolina – the Panthers did exactly that.
Would that be enough to give the cougars a chance? Do I have to do that? Consider this a guide with Playoff Allstate Predictor as a guide.
Does Pum have a chance?
It can even be divided into different categories.
Let’s get started: Should the Panthers be given a chance, given the historical precedent of the selection committee? Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah.
Despite the fact that no school outside Power 5 reached the play-offs, BYU would at least have had a chance in their favour with an 11-0 victory.
BYU ranks 11th in the University Football Power Index (FPI). If BYU wins, it would most likely finish a record 7th place (SOR). That doesn’t sound good at first sight (we’ll come back to that in a moment), but the Panthers will benefit from a number of other factors.
First of all: Independent status BYU. In the past, the Independence Committee has given less credit than the conference champions, who were all equal, but also more credit than teams that could have won the championship, but did not. This gives the BYU a little boost in case there are not four conference champions in the finals.
Second, the loss column. Although the SRG encapsulates losses – and therefore the Committee should not use them when using a summary measure such as the SRG – the Committee has traditionally overburdened the number of losses in decision-making. So if BYU runs out of 11-0, it’ll give him some extra growth.
(In addition to average length, with the current 11-game schedule, BYU will have the worst power playoff power record of any unbeaten team, except in 2016 in West Michigan. On the other hand, it’s a little ridiculous to compare this season to previous seasons. The only thing the SOR comparison tells us is that BYU won’t be a competitor in the regular season, but it’s not a regular season and the playoff bar is lower).
So, uh… State Playoff Predictor: The State Playoff Predictor, based on the committee’s past behavior, gives BYU a 47% chance of reaching the play-offs if he wins. Pretty strong! This means that the Panthers will probably need help elsewhere – Notre Dame, for example, has won the CCR, but there is nothing unreasonable about that. But the caves are coming.
The first of these caveats is another way of answering the question of whether BYU has a chance to be interviewed. If the committee says it is looking for the best teams and generally the strongest factors in which teams earn the most, then the BYGCA is unlikely to be in the top four in any of these categories, with record potential strength and REIT placements of 7 and 11 respectively. It was easy for the committee not to raise the issue of the cougar in the first four years if it didn’t want to.
It may not be relevant, and it’s not Predictor – who looks at the behavior of the committee in the past and gives BYU the best chance – but I think it’s still worth mentioning.
Fault! The file name is not specified. QB Zack Wilson has entered the Heisman Talk, whether or not in the playoffs. Will the Carolina Pangara Beach Jump win the first four places? Photo by AP/Rick Baumer, swimming pool.
Does Pum have a chance?
It’s a more complicated question. As we have been saying all season, it would be naive to think that any chaos in 2020 will not contribute to the uncertainty of the playoffs.
There is also fairly important information that we know and do not know the model. So far, the committee has thought less about BYU than we expected. This week, Zucker is ranked 13th in the CFP, despite the current PFA, and is ranked 11th and 9th, plus zero in the loss list, despite the current PFA. That’s amazing.
Despite the fact that the committee is not always consistent, this means that there is probably more reason to catch up than predicted by the playoff predictor.
Another factor: At the moment the committee seems to have a better picture of the Carolina coast than our own indicators. FPI Chanticleers only ranked 32nd, compared to 18th in the CFP ranking. This should work in Puma’s favor, but if the BUU beats Coastal Carolina, there is no guarantee that it will stay in the top 25.
Although the undefeated BYU team does have a chance in the end, my interim qualitative assessment, based on all these factors, is that the chance of BYU winning with 47% is probably high.
What about Carolina on the coast?
Coastal Carolina (9-0) is actually a team that was created here for the best resume. After increasing their own strength by attracting last-minute cougars, the Chanticleers should finish in fifth place in record strength if they win. So you’re suddenly a candidate for the playoffs?
The playoff prognosticator doesn’t see it that way and only gives the shantikers 3% if they win. What’s the difference? The quality of the team. The recovery of the Carolina Coast would be slightly better than that of the FPI’s, but the FPI thinks that the blackmailers are not as good as the team. According to our model, the BYU in a neutral field is about eight points higher than that of coastal Carolina.
Lauren Poe contributed to this article.