James Gordon
The best way to stop Biden for Trump is to make an above-average research mistake in Arizona and especially Pennsylvania.
Selective math is quite simple. Biden has to find 38 votes in an election that won more than 232 in the matches Hillary Clinton won in 2016. He’ll probably be the second. Nebraska Convention District. Remember, the state of Nebraska will choose the winner from each of its congressional districts.
Moreover, Biden has a clear and important leadership position in two states, and in 2016 he won the trump card with less than one point: Michigan and Wisconsin. Saturday’s CNN/SSRS poll gave Biden 12 points among likely voters in Michigan, while Biden led the way with 8 points in the CNN/SSRS poll of Wisconsin and 11 points in Sunday’s New York Times/Siener University poll.
These two states have 26 votes in the elections. Add Nebraska to the convention’s list and Biden gets 259 votes in the elections.
This means that Biden still has to get 11 votes in the election. Other polls conducted Saturday and Sunday in some states with at least 11 votes indicate that he will have elections.
The hardest climb must be in Florida. The New York Times/Sienna College poll divided Biden and Trump with 3 points and the ABC News/Washington Post poll with 2 points. Although the nominal leader was different in the two cases, together the studies show what has become clear in a few weeks. Florida and his 29 constituents are too close to Biden.
Biden also won 270 votes in North Carolina and 15 in the election. The CNN/SSRS survey increased by 6 points yesterday, while the average is approaching the 3-point limit. It’s a race in which Biden enjoys the victory, although the average error in the polls (about 3 points in a disputed presidential race since 1972) is enough for Trump to win.
If Trump is able to win both Florida and North Carolina (together with Georgia, which has similar polls in Florida), you can start to see how Trump could do it.
He’ll have to win in Arizona and Pennsylvania. Is it possible? Yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah, yeah. Will it be easy? No, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no, no.
We’ll start with Arizona. Biden had a 6-point lead in the New York Times/Sienna College poll on Sunday. On Saturday CNN/SSRS had Biden at 50% and Trump at 46%. The average score for the entire survey increased by 4 points. Trump therefore needs one more error than the average error of a poll in a state where there is no tradition of polling errors in favour of Republicans.
If Trump can overcome this, he still has to go to Pennsylvania and win. (There’s a reason Trump stormed the state.)
Three polls held this weekend show similar results in Key State. Biden increased 5 points in the Mullenberg College survey (with a margin of error of 5.5 points), 6 points in the New York Times/Sienna College survey and 7 points in the ABC News/Washington Post survey.
It is possible to bridge an average voting deficit of 6 points. But it’s pretty heavy. Basically, it’s a little less than a chance to throw a coin in the air three times and land on your head three times.
Like I said, it’s not 2016. Trump needs something to miss an important investigation. You know, it’s not just the government investigation that needs to be called off, by far. The trump card must be the hope that there will also be many national surveys.
Look at the Trump and Biden research from head to toe.
It’s down about nine points nationwide. The NBC/Wall Street Journal investigation indicates that this asset lags 10 points behind in their last national investigation released Sunday. In their last poll in 2016 the trump card lost only 4 points.
The national surveys were quite good in 2016. The national margin and the margin of the state that ultimately determines the winner may differ (see 2016), but there will be no difference of 9 points. No such thing has happened since the Republican Party was founded.
This means that any errors in a survey, other than in 2016, should also occur in national surveys.
It’s still possible, but unlikely. This makes Biden a big favorite and Kozyr a big loser, with only two days to go until election day.
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James Gordon
