James GordonBut no one can resist reading the tealeaves. Here’s what we’ve learned:
Roberts and Cavanaugh seem to be normal because they keep most laws intact.
Simply put: Chief Justice John Roberts has saved Obamacare in 2012, known (or unfortunately, depending on your position) as a tax. Trump and the GOP-controlled Congress abolished this sanction three years ago and allowed Republicans, including Trump’s administration, to return to the courts. If the tax disappeared, the logic of enforcement would disappear.
The bigger question is whether, if the court were to accept this logic, the whole right would perish or simply tear up part of the warrant.
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You don’t always get direct verdicts like this from Judge Brett Cavanaugh, the second gain in court: I tend to agree with you on this very simple case of severability according to our precedents, which means we give up the warrant and leave the rest of the law in place while we read our precedents on severability, said Cavanaugh Don Verrilly, a Democratic attorney in the U.S. House of Representatives who defends the law because the trump card board does not.
It would be a ball game.
Although there are five votes for the cancellation of an individual term at zero percent, Mr. Cavanaugh has made it clear that he thinks the position can be separated from the rest of the ASA (and we already know that the boss thinks so), said Steve Vladek, a CNN legal analyst and law professor at the University of Texas. It is therefore impossible to count up to five votes to reject the Charter in its entirety.
Republicans may not have one leg to stand on.
Before we even address the question of whether an individual mandate is constitutional – or whether the law as a whole can or should be violated – the question arises whether we should even get to that point.
Most judges could remotely decide that Texas and other states led by the state-owned company that took this problem for themselves have no right to file a lawsuit.
Roberts began his interrogation with a constant problem, followed by Justis Clarence Thomas and Cavanaugh.
I think in most places there is no punishment for wearing a face mask or a mask during Covid, but there is a certain amount of insult if you don’t wear it under certain conditions, asked Michael Mongana, Attorney General of Thomas California. For example, if someone breaks this team in the same way as the warrant here, but without being punished, does he have the right to challenge the warrant for wearing a mask?
Roberts seemed afraid to open the floodgates to all kinds of unintended problems.
They allow someone who has not been harmed by the situation they are challenging to go through those thousands of pages and choose which to attack, said the Chief Justice.
Roberts went overboard with that…
The Chief Justice is a conservative who has cut through the core of the Voting Rights Act, voted to extend the scope of the Second Amendment and advocated the extension of the executive power. But his decision to support Obamacare in 2012 means that he will never be fully accepted by the Republicans.
On Tuesday he seemed upset that his court had to take over the case. Two lower courts stated that the individual mandate should be maintained, but it was not clear from their perspective whether it could be separated from the rest of the law.
Roberts doesn’t chirp, but his tone can be described as clearly Republican and Trump, the president who has repeatedly criticized the Chief Justice.
I think it’s hard for you to say that Congress wanted to overthrow the entire law when the order was revoked, when the same Congress that reduced the sentence to zero didn’t even try to overthrow the rest of the law, Roberts told Texas Attorney General Kyle Hawkins.
I think, to be honest, they wanted the court to do it, but that’s not our job.
Amy Coney Barrett in the spotlight
At last month’s confirmation hearing, Democrats in the Senate objected to Amy Coney Barrett, who Trump said wanted to send her to court to take Obamacare’s statement.
She wrote a malicious article in the Legislative Review in which she reviewed Roberts’ 2012 decision and did not explain it further during the hearing, referring to the ongoing trial.
On Tuesday we heard her on the couch for the first time on this subject – and she was also skeptical about what Texas is aiming for, but also alluded to some of her thoughts about Roberts.
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The complainants pointed out that if Congress had indeed zeroed them in and… and stopped taxing them, they argued that Congress had intentionally done something unconstitutional in justifying that sentence, if in fact it had the power to assume that Barrett had said at some point in his trading power.
It’s a nice addition: And I, uh… I ask the question because five judges thought so, but it was not the opinion of the majority that said so.
Unfortunately, we have not been able to see the reaction of the Chief Justice, because the Court is currently holding a hearing by telephone.
The plane didn’t crash, so what’s the problem?
When the law was passed in 2010, the individual mandate was seen as crucial in attracting healthy people to the individual market to compensate for the higher costs associated with greater morbidity. It is the whip that will encourage people to sign up, and the premium roots that will make insurance coverage more accessible.
The fine has been set at over $695. There is also a shortage of $347.50 per adult. Household income is estimated at $1.5 million per child, or 2.5% of household income.
However, some health experts doubted from the outset that the fines would be high enough to force many consumers to take out insurance. The effectiveness of the mandate is still under discussion.
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The report of the Congressional Budget Bureau for 2017, often quoted during the oral debate, estimates that the number of people with health insurance will fall by 4 million in 2019 and by 13 million in 2027. The individual market will remain stable in almost all regions of the country over the next ten years.
The CBO also expects that only a small number of people who take out insurance under a mandate that has been reduced to zero since 2019 will continue to do so, simply because they want to abide by the law.
However, the inclusion in Obamacare’s plans has remained relatively stable. In 2019 and 2020, more than 11.4 million people signed up to participate in the information exchange under the Affordable Care Act, compared to almost 11.8 million in 2018, when the mandate came into force last year.
At his hearing, Judge Samuel Alito indicated that the individual market was holding up despite the fact that Congress had imposed a $0 fine.
At the time of the first case, there was good reason to believe that the individual warrant related to the part of the aircraft needed for the next flight, so that, if that part took off, he would contact Geoffrey Wall, acting attorney general.
But now part of it has been removed and the plane hasn’t crashed, Alito added. So if we were to solve this case as you advocate, how would we explain why an individual injunction, in its present form, is essential to the operation of the law?
Arianna de Vogue, Austin Bundy, Hannah Rabinovitch and Daniella Mora contributed to this report.
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