James GordonIt is fitting that in a year in which the final game of the season will decide the fate of several NFL teams in the playoffs, the race for the MVP title will culminate in a number of exciting end-of-season heroics that may ultimately decide the winner of this prestigious award.
And in week 17 there is a new favourite to win the MVP title. Our panel of nine analysts voted for the top ten players in the race for the MVP title, and then we used those nine rankings to determine our top five candidates, using the Heisman Trophy scale for each ranking. Based on the votes in this last round, we agree with the general consensus around the competition that this is a duel between Aaron Rodgers and Patrick Mahomes. But six of our nine panelists put the Packers’ quarterback in first place.
The MVP 2020 is likely to be decided between the top two quarterbacks in the league, but there are a handful of other people who have made a convincing case. Check out our latest MVP ranking.
Pay attention: Our group consists of Matt Bowen, Mike Clay, Courtney Cronin, Jeremy Fowler, Dan Graziano, Mina Kimes, Jason Reed, Kevin Seifert and Field Yates. The information is from William Hill’s Caesar Sports Book.
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Top five. Just missed it.
2020 Statistics: 4,059 passing yards, 44 TDs, 5 interceptions (plus 145 running yards and 3 running TDs) in 15 matches.
Votes for first place: 6 out of 9 | Bet on the winning MVP : -260
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After the Packers recruited Jordan Love in April, Rodgers was named MVP eight months later. The Green Bay quarterback has been in good shape since week 12, with at least three touchdowns in four of the Packers’ last five wins. Rodgers will be looking for his third MVP award on Sunday after a dominant prime-time performance against Tennessee, where he scored four touchdowns, a season record. It was also his 13th this season with a player rating of 100 or higher, which is the number of games played in a single season during the Super Bowl era, an achievement he also achieved when he was first named MVP of the league in 2011.
Rodgers achieved more with fewer weapons around him while leading the competition in touchdown passes (44) and passing yards (119.4), placing second in completion percentage (70.3%) and fifth in passing yards. With another victory over Chicago in week 17, the Packers secured first place in the NFC and a bye to the first round. If Rodgers has not yet established himself as an MVP, he will help the Packers deliver this performance.
While Mahomes is perhaps the most valuable player in the entire league and the face of the NFL, Rodgers is the most important part of his team’s success. That’s why he ends this season as the likely MVP.
2020 Statistics: 4,740 passing yards, 38 TDs, 6 interceptions (plus 308 running yards and 2 running TDs) in 15 matches.
Votes for first place: 3 out of 9 | Bet on the winning MVP : +210
Although Mahomes is an excellent quarterback for the Chiefs with a 14-1 record, there are not many categories in which the defending Super Bowl champion Rodgers surpasses. Simply put: The Packers’ quarterback defeated Mahomes in the final round, and a weak week for the QB Chiefs against the Falcons combined with Rodgers’ Sunday night football could be the highlight of the show. The three interceptions of Mahomes in Miami in week 14 do not help his case either. Like his career – 5.4 yards per attempt against the saints.
Mahomes will not play against the Chargers in the regular season finale of the Chiefs, so he won’t have time to catch up. Of course, none of this means that the 25-year-old is not a big, tall or other adjective to describe his game in 2020. Mahomes leads the NFL in passing courts and regularly performs wild, beautiful, dizzying plays that leave the rest of the league speechless for his talents. Rodgers just got a little better this season.
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2020 Statistics: 4,320 passing yards, 34 TDs, 9 interceptions (plus 418 running yards and 8 running TDs) in 15 matches.
Top 5 Votes: 9 out of 9 | Bet the MVP wins: +1200
According to ESPN Stats & Information, no quarterback from 2019 (49.4) to 2020 (81.6) experienced a larger increase in the total CBI than Allen. It has allowed the Bills to dominate the AFC East with their first divisional title since 1995 and the Patriots’ first sweep season in 20 years.
Allen is probably too far behind Rodgers and Mahomes to be MVP, but he is still worthy to be in the conversation after his remarkable turnaround. He made 68 percent of his passes over 4,000 meters and helped Buffalo win the most this season since 1993. Allen puts an exclamation mark on his big 2020 season by throwing for 320 yards and four touchdowns in a prime-time victory over the Patriots, giving him his eighth game of the season with 300 yards of passing. His 34 touchdowns also set a new franchise record in one season.
2020 Statistics: 1,777 running yards, 15 TD (plus 114 receiving yards) in 15 matches.
Top 5 Votes: 5 out of 9 | MVP Bet wins : +5000
Here is what the post-season range looks like now and what the future scenarios are.
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Henry is about to win his second consecutive running back title and is 223 yards away from becoming the eighth player to join the prestigious 2,000 yards running back club. He averaged 5.9 yards per wear in December, the highest in NFL history among players who have made at least 300 wear attempts. And perhaps most impressive is the fact that Henry, despite his workload, has only lost once this season.
The Titans are 10-5 and have a chance to lock AFC South and move on to the playoffs thanks to a team that Henry has hosted in almost every game in 2020. In 12 out of 15 matches he has scored at least 75 running yards, and only once has he scored less than 60 running yards.
2020 Statistics: 4,031 passing yards, 38 TDs, 13 interceptions (plus 484 running yards and 2 running TDs) in 15 matches.
Top 5 Votes: 5 out of 9 | MVP Bet wins : +10000
Wilson didn’t quite get his preseason MVP form back to beat the Rams and win NFC West, but he didn’t let Aaron Donald ruin the Seahawks’ game plan and played well enough to stay in the conversation. The Seattle defense has put Wilson in a difficult position, and this must be taken into account when assessing the burden he will have to bear in 2020. But it is his candidacy that is most punished by his 13 interceptions, which put him third in the NFL.
Slightly missed
Aaron Donald, DT, Los Angeles Rams: Donald did his best to make Wilson uncomfortable in week sixteen, posting eight photos and a bag. His 13.5 bags are only second to T.J. Watt (15), the only player who can stand in the way of Donald being named the third defensive player of the year for 2017. Donald is one of the best defenders in the league and the anchor of a Rams defense that ranks third in efficiency.
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Alvin Kamara, RB, New Orleans Saints: Henry gets all the love, but don’t forget the season in which Kamara supported 1.688 meters of the scrum (third) and 21 TDs in total (six more than the MVP candidate of the Titans). Without three of their top four recipients, the Saints passed everything to Kamara for Christmas victory, and he delivered. Kamara rushed for six TD’s against Minnesota, setting the NFL record for a single game. He set the record of the New Orleans franchise for touchdowns in one season.
Tom Brady, QB, Tampa Bay Buccaneers: With a 150 to 1 chance of winning the MVP title, Brady has already met one of his highest expectations by signing with Tampa Bay in March. The Bucs are in the playoffs for the first time since 2007, after Brady threw for four touchdowns and caught 348 yard passes in the first half against the Lions. After hitting a wall in November and asking questions about the viability of the Bucks’ post-season attack, Brady has turned the ship around and his team will play in January.
Travis Kelce, TE, Kansas City Chiefs: Kelce helped Kansas City eliminate the No. 1 seed in the AFC Playoffs in Week 16 by catching seven assists for 98 yards. He became the first player to fight in a tight game with two seasons of 100 catches and set a seasonal yardage record for tight games with 1,416:15.
Kyler Murray, QB, Arizona Cardinals: The cardinals are in an attacking slump and may miss the playoffs if Murray (leg injury) is eliminated in week 17. He will probably not be the first player to run at 4,000 meters and 1,000 meters, but his impact on the success of Arizona – especially with his legs – was felt throughout the year 2020. The cardinals are 0-5 if Murray runs seven or less times in a game and 8-2 if he runs eight or more times.
also received votes
These players have received at least one vote in the top 10 of our nine experts. Note that in most cases these votes were outside the top 5.
- Ben Roethlisberger, QB, Pittsburgh Steelers
- Ryan Tannehill, QB, Tennessee Titans.
- T.J. Watt, OLB, Pittsburgh Steelers.
- Davante Adams, WR, Green Bay Packers.
- Dalvin Cook, RB, Minnesota Vikings.
- Stephon Diggs, WR, Buffalo Bills.
- DeAndre Hopkins, WR, Arizona Cardinals.
- Dashaun Watson, QB, Houston Texans.
- Jalen Ramsey, CB, Los Angeles Rams.
- Lamar Jackson, QB, Baltimore Ravens.
- Xavien Howard, CB, Miami Dolphins…
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James Gordon
