James Gordon
7:11 P.M. EASTERN TIME.
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- ESPN Insider sponsors ESPN college basketball
- Started beating college tournaments in 2004
- Has written for Basketball Prospectus and the Wall Street Journal.
Championship week, by definition, is full of drama. What has changed in 2021 are the names at the center of this drama: Louisville, Maryland, Drake, Xavier and Georgia Tech, and others. Who knows, maybe Duke will play in this group too.
On the other hand, some of the teams vying for a spot in the 68-man field in 2021 are certainly no strangers to the bubble. You’ll recognize Syracuse, for example, as an old resident of Bubble Watch. Hey, Orange!
Finally, it is possible that 2021 will be different, as that is when the bubble really comes into focus. The number one, in our opinion, is already established: Gonzaga, Baylor, Michigan and Illinois. Unusually, there are still four or five days to go before Sunday’s qualifying session. While teams can certainly go up and down in the standings this week, there is no tension like a gap between inside and outside.
To prepare you for everything that awaits you during championship week, here’s a rundown of the teams that will win or lose the most in the coming days.
2 Connected
Nervously waiting in the club: Drake and St. John’s Louis. The Bulldogs and Billikens must wait, watch and – at the risk of sounding crass – hope others stumble. The total lack of bidders will also be welcomed in Des Moines and St. Louis. Louis.
You put yourself in danger: Louisville, Maryland and Xavier. All three of these teams were considered No. 8 in February, or even March in the case of the Terrapins. Now the Cardinals, Terps and especially the Musketeers are in danger of being excluded from NCAA competition if they go 0-1 in their respective conference tournaments.
It feels good, but I can’t relax yet: Georgia Tech and Wichita State. Both seem to have some wiggle room in their brackets, but neither wants to risk getting out of their brackets early this week.
Competing for space in narrow cubicles: Colorado State, Boise State and Utah State. While Mountain West rival San Diego State is considered the favorite, the Rams and Broncos are ranked No. 12. Aggies are the first four materials.
Hide and seek: Syracuse and Ole Miss. Neither team has received much attention in bracket discussions, but both are in the top four lists.
In short, there is still a lot to decide on the pitch before Sunday’s preliminary round. Sit down and take it all in.
Here is our current projection of the bubble:
Bids from traditional leagues with a bid (minus Ivy): 20 Teams
Locks: 32 teams
Calling: 25 teams for 16 available spots
Must be in game: 6 teams
Work: 18 teams
ACC: Big 12: Big East: Pac-12: SEC: US: Other.
ACC
Locks: Virginia, Florida, Clemson…
should be in
Virginia Tech Hokies.
The day before the scheduled home game against Louisville, Virginia Tech announced that the game had been cancelled due to a renegotiation of the COVID-19 contract with the Hokies. The news came as Mike Young’s squad was on the verge of a dominant 38-point victory over Wake Forest. Virginia Tech will be the eighth seed. Bubble Watch HQ wishes the Hokies good health and a speedy return to the game.
Completion of task
North Carolina Tar Heels
Let’s not talk about those difficult first-order programs anymore. Then check out North Carolina. Yes, for reasons that remain unclear, Marquette clearly kryptonized UNC. But as long as the Tar Heels can outrun the Golden Eagles in a field of 68 (Roy Williams may have his eye on the Big East tournament), it’s worth noting that this rotation is looking stronger and stronger as Sunday’s elimination round gets closer. It’s been three weeks since an ACC opponent scored a point per possession against this defense, and the one-point loss at Syracuse was preceded by wins over Florida State and Duke. The expected No. 10 is certainly a new experience for North Carolina, but the Tar Heels’ basketball is starting to become more familiar.
the Louisville Cardinals
When the Cardinals beat Georgia Tech 74-58 in Louisville on the first day of February, it didn’t seem like much. Today, however, that victory rightfully stands as the biggest selling point of Louisville’s profile. Thus, Duke’s nominal victory at No. 1 seems a little less impressive now that we know the Blue Devils will enter the ACC Tournament as No. 10. The Cardinals played just 19 games in their lockout-shortened season, and after a 10-point loss at home to Virginia, Chris Mack’s team dropped to 11th place. Things are much tighter heading into the Cards’ ACC Tournament game against Duke. A loss wouldn’t necessarily mean the death of Louisville, but it would at least bring a lot of uncertainty into Sunday’s playoff round.
Georgia Tech Yellow Jackets
Anyone thinking about how a team should make its way through the tournament would do well to study Georgia Tech. After wins over Virginia Tech, Syracuse and Duke, the Yellow Jackets went from fourth to 11th in three days. Josh Pastner’s team closed out the regular season with a 12-point victory over Wake Forest, and the final numbers in conference play show dramatic improvement in the offense led by Moses Wright and Jose Alvarado. Georgia Tech is not far off the program’s first NCAA appearance in 11 years.
Syracuse orange
Jim Boeheim’s men have survived and moved on, both as participants in the ACC Tournament and, perhaps more importantly, as a struggling team trying to improve to 68-under par. The Orange easily defeated NC State 89-68 and will now face Virginia. In other words, the rankings could not have been better for Syracuse. Each team that reached the ACC quarterfinals had a 50-50 chance of winning against Virginia Tech or Georgia Tech. Good teams, sure, but with NET ratings hovering around 40th, the Hokies and Yellow Jackets can’t necessarily give a struggling team the boost it needs to qualify. The Cavaliers, on the other hand, rank in the top 15 nationally in the NET, giving them the most valuable chance to win the ACC Tournament on neutral ground. If Syracuse can be seen in the first four games, a win against the ‘Hoos should push Orange into the projection field. Staying until selection Sunday will be a separate but fun conversation for the SU.
Duke Blue Devils
Let’s just say Duke made it to the ACC tournament title game before they lost. There’s no reason not to. There’s no reason not to. If Duke wins the ACC title, it will be because the Blue Devils beat Boston College, Louisville, Florida State and Virginia Tech. Aside from the Eagles, the other three potential opponents rank between 10th and 60th in the NET rankings. Sure, those three wins would have given Duke a nice boost – but instead, Mike Krzyzewski’s team is trying to jump over a huge gap. While Duke theoretically wins four games, the other teams have to take a defeat on the bubble. It would have been easier for the Blue Devils to win five games (which, to be precise, is not easy) and earn an automatic invite.
Large 12
Locks: Baylor, Oklahoma, West Virginia, Texas, Kansas, Oklahoma.
Oklahoma State is touted here as a contender for the tournament. OSU is appealing a decision by the NCAA to ban the basketball team from the postseason. While that appeal is pending with the NCAA, the team will be allowed to participate in the tournament this season.
Greater East
Locks: Villanova, Creighton.
should be in
Connecticut Huskies.
With Villanova trying to find its way without the injured Collin Gillespie and Creighton dealing with a coaching suspension, UConn could very well be the best team in the Big East. The Huskies really wipe their opponents off the map, with the most recent example being the 98-82 dismantling of Georgetown in Storrs. Now that the Big East season is over, Dan Hurley’s players can easily lay claim to the league’s best defense, as well as increasingly dominant scorer James Booknight. Bracket suppliers all noticed, and UConn went from 12th to ninth in eight days. An unlucky player could get more than he expects in the round of 32 with the Huskies.
Completion of task
The Musketeers of Xavier
Take away Xavier’s win over Creighton (a game that became infamous for its impact on the Bluejays’ locker room) and you’re looking at a Musketeer team that lost to UConn, St. Louis, and St. Louis. Over the past three weeks, the team has worked with the offices of St. John’s, Providence, Georgetown, and Marquette. In that same time frame, Travis Steele’s group posted victories over UCLA and Butler. With a win over Creighton, Xavier’s men remain in the projected field, but placed 12th. However, a 2-5 finish and a 6-7 Big East record provided a classic make the Big East tournament situation.
Pirates of Seton Hall
The wheels came off at Seton Hall. Back-to-back losses at Georgetown, Butler, at home against UConn and St. Louis St. John’s lost to the Pirates at 13-12. Kevin Willard’s team has already been eliminated from the projection field by a 10-point loss at Queens, and now the descent from the bubble order will continue. The wins over Penn State and Xavier in December are still considered Quad 1s. But the only game that keeps the Pirates at bay is the 80-73 win over UConn a month ago (a game in which James Booknight did not play for the Huskies, however).
St. John’s St. John’s Red Storm
You can’t keep St. Louis. John from the Bubble Watch. Six consecutive wins brought the Red Storm here in early February. After that, three defeats in four games ensured a brief period of invisibility in these parts. Mike Anderson’s men are back on track with home wins over Providence and Seton Hall, another rising star. Wins on the road against UConn and at home against Villanova give enough weight to this profile that St. Louis will need to be ready for the next round. I would love to see St. John’s in the conversation. But the Big East tournament has already done its job.
Big Ten
Locks: Michigan, Ohio, Illinois, Iowa, Wisconsin, Purdue.
should be in
Rutgers Scarlet Knights
Nothing helps a bad team more than a bad opponent who has already withdrawn from the game. Rutgers was on the verge of defeat after a 21-point loss at Nebraska ended a three-game losing streak. But in the season finale in Minnesota, Steve Pikiell’s men won in overtime. The Scarlet Knights were seeded No. 10, meaning the program will be back in the NCAA Tournament for the first time in 30 years. For example, Rutgers 0-1 in the Big Ten Tournament would be no impediment to betting if, as seems plausible, the winning team in that game is a NET top-75 opponent.
Michigan State Spartans
If you were deprived of all basketball results and college news for an entire season, only to be presented with Michigan State’s record for the first time today, you might say something like: Wow, bad season, but now Tom Izzo will probably make the Final Four as the #11. The Spartans have played no fewer than 13 games in Quad 1, including four wins. It’s not a great total, but if you beat Michigan, Illinois, and Ohio State, you get the committee’s attention. The graphaken showed MSU as one of the last four teams on the field still before the home win over the Wolverines. Then, after that victory, Joe Lunardi promoted Michigan State to four exemptions. Bubblewatch doesn’t want to call the Spartans favorites just yet, but the men from Izzo have certainly earned that promotion.
Completion of task
Maryland Terrapins
The Terrapins’ position in the table differs from that of Northwestern and Penn State after the defeats. Das Team von Mark Turgeon wurde in der letzten Woche der regulären Saison kurzzeitig als Nr. 8 der Setzliste gehandelt. Maryland is now at risk of not making the tournament, and the Big Ten’s allocation of seats does not favor the Terps. Michigan State will be next on this team. In theory, losing to the lively Spartans doesn’t hurt the profile. That’s true, but Maryland’s problem is that most other vicious records are swept by the Nittany Lions. Wins at Illinois, Wisconsin and at home against Purdue and MSU still look good, but let’s say the Terps lose their next game: Will the committee award the valuable bid to the 15-13 team? Maybe, but it would be better for Maryland if they didn’t find out.
Pac-12
Locks: USC, Oregon, Colorado.
should be in
UCLA Bruins
The Bruins were ranked 9th most important teams for three weeks. The highest ranked spot in the bracket, but that has now changed for the worse. Mick Cronin’s men finished the season with three consecutive defeats, and the last loss in particular was heartbreaking. Tahj Eaddy hit a 3-pointer with one second left in the game to give the Trojans a one-point victory over their starter at Pauli Pavilion. At the end of the season, the Bruins team is now in 10th place. It’s certainly not the end of the world, as a group that still feels comfortable should be on the field. Still, the expectation for March is different than the Bruins expected three games ago.
SEC
Locks: Alabama, Arkansas, Tennessee, Missouri, Florida, LSU.
Completion of task
Ole Miss Rebel
Yes, Ole Miss is 15-10 and has a spot in the SEC tournament. A lot of work, really, but the Rebels need to see this glass as half full. With six SEC teams already on the bubble, and with Alabama and Arkansas in the top three, this league gives aspiring bubble teams everything they could want in terms of quality opponents. The SEC is probably stronger from top to bottom than it was a decade ago, which means Ole Miss doesn’t have to worry about its ranking: Sit down somewhere and win some games.
US
Locks: Houston
Completion of task
Wichita State Shockers
With a home win over Houston, Wichita State entered the final week of February as one of the last teams standing. Since then, the Shockers have held that position, and unless they lose in the U.S. Tournament, Isaac Brown’s group likely won’t have the chance to significantly improve their projected ranking. A possible rematch with the Cougars, for example, could take place during the American Title Game. In that case, another big win against Calvin Samson’s team would also earn WSU an automatic invitation.
EMS Mustangs
Perhaps in the distant future, the committee will be completely replaced by a measure that assesses the difficulty of replicating a team’s victories and losses, given its opponents and the places where those records were achieved. произойда это и сила рекорда (SOR), победы над пузыре или что-то подобное находится на водительском месте, это будет хорошей новостью для SMU. There is no agreement with the SRG, 11-4, there is no agreement with the SRG, 11-4, there is no agreement with the SRG, 11-4, there is no agreement with the SRG, 10. In the real world, however, Tim Yankovic’s people on the grid are in their 50s and inhabit the outer limits of the bubble. Keep winning, SMU.
Memphis Tiger
A thrilling finale in Houston could end Memphis’ great hopes. Boogie Ellis’ Tigers evened the score at 3 with 1.5 seconds left. After a timeout, the Cougars won on a 3-pointer by Tramon Mark. When Mark’s goal was scored, Memphis was listed as one of the next four out in brackets. That means Penny Hardaway’s team is struggling at the U.S. tournament. This is the point where Bubble Watch usually says that Team X can only meet Team Y in the title match, so nothing but an automatic bid will work. This is not Memphis! This is a very good draw for the Tigers, as the highest seeded in this group is Wichita State. That means No. 2 Houston, by far the toughest opponent in the NET Terminals field, can face the No. 3 Tigers in the semifinals. Be strong in this quarter, Memphis, and let’s talk then.
Other
Locks: Gonzaga, BYU, Loyola Chicago, San Diego.
should be in
St. John’s Bonaventure Bonnie
In just 19 games played during the suspended and shortened season, St. Louis was the only team to win the game. Bonaventure has performed commendably. Mark Schmidt’s team was already in the top 30 of the NET-ranking prior to their win over St. Louis in the semifinals of the Atlantic 10 Tournament. The Bonnies placed 10th in the St. Louis tournament. The Billikens’ decision will go down in history as a Quadra 1 victory, the team’s third this season with only two defeats. With each win in the postseason, Schmidt is increasingly mentioned as a candidate for other positions (perhaps Boston College). While St. John’s St. Bonaventure will be happy to receive half of that money for every win in the postseason.
Completion of task
VCU ramps
The Atlantic 10 title fight will have a strong conference feel as it looks like VCU and St. John’s will be the only two teams to win. St. Bonaventure will be part of a group of 68 with one win or one loss. The Rams are seeded 11th, and the team benefited from the return of Bones Hyland after missing two games with a foot injury. The strong showing in the A-10 tournament was a welcome turnaround for a program that has yet to reach the postseason. In 2019, VCU went through conference play with a 16-2 record and did not lose until the A-10 quarterfinals against Rhode Island. The Rams then finished 8th in Sunday’s draft, losing to UCF by 15 points in their last 64 games. Mike Rhoades’ current team has already surpassed that precedent in the conference tournament and will try to do the same in the NCAA round.
Drake Bulldogs
The Bulldogs were one of the last three teams on the field, losing to Loyola Chicago in the championship game of the Missouri Valley Tournament. A loss against a top 20 opponent like the Ramblers on a neutral field isn’t bad for the profile, so for the sake of argument let’s assume Drake is still one of the bottom three teams in the theoretical field. There’s still a lot of basketball to be played between now and Sunday, and Drake could earn an important spot if the top four teams in the group don’t finish higher. The Bulldogs have a win over Loyola in three tries, a top-50 net ranking and a 25-4 overall record. There will be a close call with the committee, and the Bulldogs will be rightfully concerned about any punt or strong run theft by another team on the bubble.
Colorado Rams
The Rams closed out the regular season with an 85-82 loss at Nevada after the Wolf Pack’s Grant Sherfield hit a 3-pointer in the final seconds. The result was a loss in the second group of four, ending an intense run in which CSKA played four games in seven days. Home wins over Air Force (twice) and New Mexico were followed by a defeat in Reno. Nico Bear’s squad was seeded 11th before the loss, and Colorado State will now likely enter the Mountain West Tournament as one of the last teams or the first team in a field of 68.
State agencies in Utah
After Craig Smith’s men lost two games at Boise State by 13 points, the outlook for the Bubble looked bleak. Then a funny thing happened. The expected 11th and 12th place finishes have begun to fall, while the top four outs and next four outs from various programs have also struggled to win games. The United States, meanwhile, have quietly done business with three home wins, two over Nevada and one over Wyoming. The Aggies put an end to that by winning the season finale at Fresno State. This combination of stumbling opponents and consistent Utah State performance has allowed the Aggies to return to the top tier. The NET rankings for the 50 still look reasonable, and the sweep against San Diego State (both games were played in Logan, Utah) is still impressive. The United States has a chance.
Boise State Broncos
Losing to Quad 4 on the second day of March is not a good sign. Boise State was ranked No. 11 before losing to Fresno State at home by three points. Now the fate of the BSU tournament is at stake. Before this loss, the Broncos seemed as safe as an 11th place team. Place can be, meaning Boise State has been in a constant projection field every day for the past month. This run in the wrong bracket will likely end, and the previous NET Top 35 ranking will suffer a setback. BSU desperately needs a good performance in the Mountain West tournament.
St. John’s Louis Billikens
After losing against SLU in the Atlantic 10 semifinals, coach Travis Ford said his team will schedule a game next week. The desire to raise that profile is reasonable, because as it stands, there may not be enough 14-6 here for a team ranked in the NET top 50 to get an invitation to a special meet. The win against LSU is certainly important, as is the regular season victory against the Bonnies in St. Louis. Louis. But if the Billikens lose, a win against VCU or a win against St. John’s would be a good thing. St. John’s could also be the subject of a story. So yes, plan wisely, coach Ford. From a NET perspective, Davidson would be the highest ranked team that has already finished the season with no real hope of being selected. Just a suggestion.
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James Gordon
