James GordonAs my colleague Victoria Mathias noted in the Goaltending Rundown late last week, it’s harder than ever to get the green light for this position in this perfect storm that is the season. Why do I call him that? A combination of attrition at the position, COVID’s impact on the shortened season, and ESPN.com’s new point system that can drastically punish a goalie if he performs poorly on the field.
I’d also like to summarize the position by analyzing the fantasy points per 60 (FPP60) and the percentage of the crease so far, as I look ahead and extrapolate these stats. But I also short the bank for a distilled view of the stats. Here is a brief overview of the evolution of goalies since the 16th century. February (one month) and how that translates into the All-Goalie rankings.
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Marc-Andre Fleury,Jersey, Vegas Golden Knights (#29 overall, #3 goalie): Fleury has been a golden boy in the cage and has a 76.1 percent percentage so far this season, up from 91.1 percent on Feb. 16 when Robin Lehner was absent. Had he continued to play as much as he has over the past few months (4.68 FPP60), he would have easily been the most valuable guard. But with Lehner on the ice to make the comeback, and Fleury at 36 in what will surely be a long postseason for the Knights, I don’t see him playing more than 55% of the minutes in goal. That would move him from the top of the projection for remaining points to 7th among guards with reduced playing time. That makes him a solid pick, but don’t rely on the heroic stats we’ve seen so far.
Thatcher Demko, G, Vancouver Canucks (#76 overall, #7 goalie): At least I’m glad I’m not the only one who gave up on Demko too early this season. Last week it went from 50% in ESPN leagues to 60% – and up. That’s how it should be. Only Fleury and Andrei Vasilevskiy have scored more fantasy points in the last month. His occupancy rate since 16. The February rate is 77.1% at the workhorse level. At this rate, he’s the third best fantasy goalie of the future.
Tristan Jerry, G, Pittsburgh Penguins (#123 overall, #15 goalie): The road deviations are still ridiculous, but the overall product has overcome that inconsistency. It has been since the 16th. February has played 80.2% of Creasy’s minutes and has since scored the fourth most fantasy points among guards. It probably helped that most of those minutes were played at home, where he recorded a 2.36 goals-against average (versus 3.60 GAA on the road). While the stark contrast between his performance on the field is noticeable, he still has guards in the top five in his projections based on the finished product.
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Kaapo Kahkonen, G, Minnesota Wild (#117 overall, #12 goalie): Although he still gets less ice time than other top goalies, Kahkonen has managed to stay on the ice since he was 16. In February, he scored the fifth most fantasy points in goal despite playing just 60.2 percent of the Wild’s games in goal. But the difference between production and Cam Talbot was huge at the time: Kahkonen has an FPP60 of 5.37 compared to 2.88 for Talbot. Assuming a 65% turnover rate, Kahkonen is the best predictor of fantasy points among goalies of late. While he probably can’t sustain a 5.37 FPP60, he could very well play over 65 percent of the minutes – so the wins and losses for the final product should see him as a lock for fantasy roles. It is currently available in 29% of leagues.
Alex Nedeljkovic, G, Carolina Hurricanes (unranked): What a nice problem. The Hurricanes had to let Petr Mrazek recover from thumb surgery and saw Nedeljkovic shine. The Hurricanes will have to decide what to do if Mrazek returns early in the season to get him into the booth. Since February 16th, Nedeljkovic has a higher cage utilization ratio than James Reimer (50.2% for Ned) and has outpaced him in terms of fantasy production (5.51 FPP60 vs. 3.70 FPP60). Of course Reimer’s FPP60 is not to be sneezed at, but he didn’t keep up with Nedeljkovic. Will the Canes make room to keep Ned on the team when Mrazek returns? Does this mean the deal is done? Can Mrazek return because of this situation? I don’t have a strict recommendation for this, other than knowing how good Nedeljkovic has been lately.
Ilya Sorokin, G, New York Islanders (#181 overall, #22 for stayers): It is interesting to note that since the 16th century, Sorokin. February scored more goals than Semyon Varlamov, although he only had a 40.0% save percentage. With hopes of a playoff run growing, we could be seeing more youngsters in the future. It’s definitely worth some growth with Sorokin available in 60 percent of ESPN leagues.
2 Connected
Mike Smith, G, Edmonton Oilers (#153 overall, #20 goalie): Smith, which has been in operation since the 16th century. February had 76.3 percent of the Oilers’ play on the ice, has since recorded a 3.49 FPP60. That combination of speed would put him in the top 10 goalie projections for the remaining points. But is 76.3% wrinkles too high for a 38-year-old? Maybe an 82-game campaign, but the Oilers only have 25 games left in their shortened IRVOC season. As has already been said: Make sure your hand is on the cord to pull the chute at the first sign of a struggle.
Sergei Bobrovsky, G, Florida Panthers (No. 91 overall, No. 9 goalie): The return of Bob. In February, Bobrovsky played 60.2 percent of the minutes in goal for the Panthers. But if you force him further, he’s been doing it since the 26th. February played 78.1% of the minutes. With a job we know he can handle, Bobrovsky could be one of the top five guards in the remaining points projection. It’s FPP60 since the 16th. February is 3.92, since the 16th. February at 1.33. The turn is made.
Jonathan Bernier, GM, Detroit Red Wings (#222 overall, #32 for goalies): I’ve pretty much ignored Bernier this season, given the way the Red Wings have played early in the season. But this exercise, held over the past month, has put it forward as a possible option. The combination of a 77.2% closing percentage and a decent 2.74 FPP60 over 16 years. In February, Bernier ranked 15th among all goalies in terms of fantasy points. Clearly, your team’s second goalie is within reach. His monster workload is certainly accessible in the future, as the team will try to minimize the use of Thomas Grays (-5.67 FPP60, actually). Bernier is available in 93% of ESPN leagues.
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Ilya Samsonov, G, Washington Capitals (number 120 overall, number 13 goalie): Try to move Vitek Vanecek’s save to Monday, because I’m not sure any of them could have stopped the Sabres. Samsonov is getting more and more work with the Capitals. He has played in three of his last five games, all of which should be considered tougher assignments (Samsonov played three times against the Flyers and Vanecek played against the Devils and Sabres). Samson’s FPP60 has been around since the 16th century. February with an elite 4.05 (back with the team on Feb. 28), and Vanecek has had a 3.76 FPP60 since then. If these two shared a 50-50 goaltending job, Samsonov would be 15th and Vanecek 16th. So while it goes without saying that the goalie who starts the most is the one you want, there is a world of difference where both have fantastic value. As you can see from the rankings, I support Samsonov.
New position on the ranking
Thatcher Demko (#76), Tristan Jarry (123), Ilya Sorokin (181), Antti Raanta (205), Vitek Vanechek (220), Jonathan Bernier (222), Janni Gurde (231), Kasperi Kapanin (233), Matt Grzelcyk (244)
just missed
Jason Dickinson, Brock Nelson, Ryan Getzlaf, Calvin de Haan, Scott Mayfield, Nikita Zaitsev, Mattias Ekholm, James Reimer, Jack Campbell, Alex Nedelkovich, Tyler Bertuzzi, Tyler Motte, Frank Watrano, Kevin Labanz, Ryan Hartman, Alex Killorn
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Top 250 fantasy hockey rankings
1. Andrey Vasilevsky, G, TB (G1)
2. Austin Matthews, C, Goal (C1)
3. Connor McDavid, C, Edm (C2)
4. David Pastrnak, RW, Forest (RW1)
5. Brad Marchand, LW, Forest (LW1)
6. Victor Hedman, D, TB (D1)
7. Alexey Ovechkin, LW, Wsh (LW2)
8. Stephen Stamkos, C, TB (C3)
9. Philip Grubauer, G., Colonel (G2)
10. Nathan MacKinnon, C, Colonel (C4)
11. Patrice Bergeron, C, Forest (C5)
12. Leon Draisaitl, LW, Edm (LW3)
13. Mark Scheifele, C, Wpg (C6)
14. Max Pacioretty, LW, Vgs (LW4)
15. Patrick Kane, RW, Chi (RW2)
16. Anze Kopitar, C, LA (C7)
17. Alexander Barkov, C, Fla (C8)
18. Mitchell Marner, RW, But (RW3)
19. Mikko Rantanen, RV, Colonel (RW4)
20. Alex DeBrincat, LW, Chi (LW5)
21. Charlie McAvoy, D, Forest (D2)
22. Mark Stone, RW, Vgs (RW5)
23. Joe Pavelski, RW, Dal (RW6)
24. Sean Couturier, K, Fee (C9)25. Logan Couture, C, SJ (C10)
26. Artemy Panarin, LW, NYR (LW6)
27. Jeff Petrie, D, Mon (D3)
28. Drew Doughty, D, Los Angeles (D4)
29. Marc-André Flory, G, Vgs (G3)
30. John Carlson, D, Wsh (D5)
31. Alex Pietrangelo, D, Vgs (D6)
32. Jonathan Huberdeau, LW, Fla (LW7)
33. Alec Martinez, D, Vgs (D7)
34. Philip Forsberg, LW, Nsh (LW8)
35. Nicklas Backstrom, C, Wsh (C11)
36. Ondřej Palát, LW, TB (LW9)
37. Sidney Crosby, C, Pit (C12)
38. Semyon Varlamov, G, NYI (G4)
39. Vincent Trocheck, C, Auto (C13)
40. Ivan Provorov, D, Phi (D8)
41. James van Riemsdyk, LW, Phi (LW10)
42. Jacob Cichrun, D, Ari (D9)
43. Chris Kreider, LW, NYR (LW11)
44. Connor Hellbake, G, Wpg (G5)
45. Kyle Connor, LW, Wpg (LW12)
46. Jack Eichel, C., Boothe (C14)
47. Evander Kane, LW, SJ (LW13)
48. John Klingberg, D, Dal (D10)
49. Nurse Darnell, D., Edmie (D11)
50. Alexander Radulov, RV, Dal (RW7)51. Brayden Point, C, TB (C15)
52. Jake Guentzel, LW, Pit (LW14)
53. Sebastian Aho, C, Automotive (C16)
54. Keil Makar, D, Col (D12)
55. Patrick Hornquist, RW, Fla (RW8)
56. Hamilton Arc, D, Auto (D13)
57. Vladimir Tarasenko, RV, SVL (RW9)58. Chris Letang, D, Pit (D14)
59. Roman Josi, D, Nsh (D15)
60. Gabriel Landeskog, LW, Colonel (LW15)
61. Adam Fox, D, NYR (D16)
62. Nicholas Ehlers, LW, Wpg (LW16)
63. Elias Lindholm, RW, Cgy (RW10)
64. Joel Farabee, LW, Phi (LW17)
65. Andrey Svechnikov, LW, Auto (LW18)
66. Emmerwiel, RW, Wpg (RW11)
67. Shea Theodore, D, Vgs (D17)
68. Brayden Schenn, C, StL (C17)
69. John Tavares, C., But (C18)
70. Jacob Markstrom, G, Cgy (G6)
71. Dustin Brown, RW, LA (RW12)
72. Brent Burns, D, SJ (D18)
73. Roope Hintz, C, Dal (C19)
74. Johnny Gaudreau, LW, Cgy (LW19)
75. Jamie Benn, LW, Dal (LW20)
76. Thatcher Demco, G., Van (G7)
77. Alex Tuch, RW, Vgs (RW13)
78. Anthony Cirelli, C, TB (C20)
79. Aaron Ekblad, D, Fla. (D19)
80. Matt Dumba, D, Min (D20)
81. Patrick Lane, RW, Cls (RW14)
82. Morgan Rilley, D., Aim (D21)
83. Sam Reinhart, RW, Buf (RW15)
84. Igor Shesterkin, G, NYR (G8)
85. Josh Anderson, RW, Mo (RW16)
86. Seth Jones, D, Cls (D22)
87. Jacob Trouba, D, New York (D23)88. Ryan O’Reilly, C, StL (C21)
89. Matthew Tkachuk, LW, Cgy (LW21)
90. Mikhail Sergachev, D, TB (D24)91. Sergey Bobrovsky, G, Fla (G9)
92. Brady Tkachuk, LW, Ott (LW22)
93. Thomas Chabot, D., Ott (D25)
94. Tyler Toffoli, RW, Mo (RW17)
95. Mika Zibanejad, C, New York (C22)
96. Tyson Barry, D, Edm (D26)
97. Devon Toews, D, Col (D27)
98. Jordan Steel, S, Automobile (C23)99. J.T. Miller, C., Wang (C24)
100. Travis Konecny, RW, Phi (RW18)
101. David Perron, RW, StL (RW19)
102. Tom Wilson, RW, Wsh (RW20)
103. T.J. Oshie, RW, Wsh (RW21)
104. Jordan Binnington, G, StL (G10)
105. Victor Olofsson, RW, Buf (RW22)
106. Thomas Hurtle, C., S.J. (C25)
.107. Mark Giordano, D, Cgy (D28)
,108. Frederik Andersen, G., Thor (G11)
109. Pierre-Luc Dubois, C, Wpg (C26)
110. Timo Meyer, RW, SJ (RW23)
111. Kyler Yamamoto, RW, Edm (RW24)
112. Jean-Gabriel Pago, C, New York (C27)
113. Kirill Kaprizov, LW, Min (LW23)
114. Rasmus Ristolainen, D, Boothe (D29)
115. Evgeny Malkin, C, Pit (C28)
116. Elias Pettersson, C, Van (C29)
117. Kaapo Kahkonen, G., Min (G12)
118. Ryan Nugent-Hopkins, C, Edm (C30)
119. Matthew Barzal, C, NYI (C31)
120. Ilya Samsonov, G, Wsh (G13)
121. Jaroslav Halak, G, Bos (G14)
122. Brian Rast, RW, Pit (RW25)
.123. Tristan Jarry, G., Pete (G15)
124. Nick Ritchie, LW, Forest (LW24)
125. Shea Weber, D, Mo (D30)
126. Kevin Lankinen, G., Chi (G16)
127. Brock Boeser, RW, Van (RW26)
128. Robin Lehner, G, Vgs (G17)
129. Taylor Hall, LW, Buf (LW25)
130. Adrian Kempe, C, LA (C32)
131. Ryan Pulock, D, New York (D31)
132. William Nylander, RW, But (RW27)
133. Neil Pionk, D, Wpg (D32)
,134. Ryan McDonagh, D, TB (D33)
135. Petr Mrazek, G, Automotive (G18)
136. Brendan Gallagher, RW, Mon (RW28)
,137. Samuel Girard, D, Colonel (D34)
138. Jonas Brodin, D, Min (D35)
.139. Quinn Hughes, D, Van (D36)
140. Jack Hughes, C, NJ (C33)
141. Nick Suzuki, C, Mo (C34)
142. Mats Zuccarello, RW, Min (RW29)
143. Kyle Palmieri, RW, NJ (RW30)
,144. Tuukka Rask, G, Bos (G19)
145. Jake Muzzin, D, But (D37)
146. Cam Atkinson, RW, Cls (RW31)
.147. Kevin Hayes, C., Fi (C35)
,148. Keith Yandle, D., Fla. (D38)
149. Max Comtois, LW, Ana (LW26)
150. Adam Larsson, D, Edm (D39)
,151. William Karlsson, C, Vgs (C36)
152. Kevin Fiala, C, Min (C37)
,153. Mike Smith, G, Edmar (G20)
154. Dominic Kubalik, LW, Chi (LW27)
155. Boone Jenner, C, Cls (C38)
156. Nazem Kadri, C, Col (C39)
157. Teuvo Teravainen, RW, Auto (RW32)
158. Anton Khudobin, G, Dahl (G21)159. Joel Eriksson Eck, C, Min (C40)
160. Ryan Strom, S, New York (C41)161. Denis Gurianov, LW, Dal (LW28)
162. Evgeny Kuznetsov, C, Wsh (C42)
163. P.K. Subban, D, NJ (D40)
164. Christian Dvorak, LW, Ari (LW29)
,165. Nino Niederreiter, RW, Auto (RW33)
166. Erik Karlsson, D, SJ (D41)
167. Chandler Stevenson, C, Vgs (C43)
168. Bo Horvath, C., Wang (C44)
169. Pavel Buchnevich, RW, New York (RW34)
170. Josh Morrissey, D, Wpg (D42)
171. Sean Monahan, C, Cgy (C45)
172. Jakub Voracek, RW, Phi (RW35)
173. Mike Hoffman, LW, StL (LW30)
174. Carter Verhege, C., Fla. (C46)
175. Justin Falk, D, StL (D43)
176. Rasmus Andersson, D, Cgy (D44)
177. Martin Necas, C, Auto (C47)
178. Oliver Ekman-Larsson, D, Ari (D45)
179. Dylan Larkin, C, Det (C48)
180. Shane Gostisbehere, D, Fi (D46)
181. Ilya Sorokin, G, New York (G22)
182. Miro Heiskanen, D, Dal (D47)
183. Conor Garland, RW, Ari (RW36)
184. Drake Batterson, C, Ott (C49)
185. Torey Circle, D, StL (D48)
186. Cary Price, G., Mon (G23)
,187. Rasmus Dahlin, D, Boothe (D49)
188. Elvis Merzlikins, G, Cls (G24)
189. Oliver Bjorkstrand, RW, Cls (RW37)
190. Claude Giroux, LW, Phi (LW31)
191. Zach Werenski, D, Cls (D50)
192. Jonathan Marchessault, LW, Vgs (LW32)
193. John Gibson, G., Ana (G25)
194. Jordan Eberle, RW, New York (RW38)
195. Brandon Tanev, LW, Pit (LW33)
196. Jakub Vrana, C, Wsh (C50)
197. Clayton Keller, C, Ari (C51)
198. Brian Elliott, G., Fi (G26)
199. Ty Smith, D., N.J. (D51)
.200. Phil Kessel, RW, Ari (RW39)
201. Mikael Granlund, LW, Nsh (LW34)
202. Jared Spurgeon, D, Min (D52),203. Chunas Korpisalo, G, Cls (G27)
204. Scott Laughton, LW, PHI (LW35)
205. Antti Raanta, G., Ari (G28)
206. Jordan Greenway, LW, Min (LW36)
207. Jack Roslovic, C, Cls (C52)
208. Eli Tolvanen, LW, Nsh (LW37)
209. Andrey Burakovsky, LW, Colonel (LW38)
210. Zach Hyman, LW, Target (LW39)
211. Colton Parayko, D, StL (D53)
.212. Jordan Kirov, C, StL (C53)
213. Thomas Tatar, LW, Mon (LW40)
214. Adam Boquist, D, Chi (D54)
.215. Nick Schmalz, K, Ari (C54)
216. Carter Hart, G., Fi (G29)
217. Ryan Graves, D, Col (D55)
,218. Alex Iafallo, LA (LW41)
219. Rickard Ruckell, C., Ana (C55)
220. Witek Vanecek, G, Wsh (G30)
221. Cam Talbot, G., Min (G31)
,222. Jonathan Bernier, G, Det (G32)
223. Erik Gustafsson, D, Fi (D56)
224. Jeff Carter, C, Los Angeles (C56)
225. Duncan Keith, D., Chi (D57)
226. Chris Dreiger, G., Fla. (G33)
.227. Jake Allen, G., Mo (G34)
228. Tyler Myers, D., Van (D58)
,229. Justin Schultz, D, Wsh (D59)
230. Miles Wood, LW, NJ (LW42)
231. Janni Gourde, LW, TB (LW43)
232. Jakob Slavin, D, Automotive (D60)
233. Kasperi Kapanin, RV, pit (RW40)
234. Andrew Kopp, C, Wpg (C57)
235. Andrew Manjapan, LW, Cgy (LW44)
236. Connor Murphy, D, Chi (D61)
.237. Nick Foligno, LW, Cls (LW45)
238. Darcy Coomper, G., Ari (G35)
239. Esa Lindell, D, Dahl (D62)
240. Calvin Petersen, G, LA (G36)
241. Anthony Manta, RW, Det (RW41)
242. Josh Norris, C, Ott (C58)
243. Paul Zaha, C, NJ (C59)
244. Matt Grzhelczyk, D, Forest (D63)
245. David Savard, D, Cls (D64)
246. Nico Hisher, C., NJ (C60)
247. Alexis Lafreniere, LA, New York (LW46)
248. Brett Pesce, D, Auto (D65)
249. Nick Leddy, D, NYI (D66)
.250. Oliver Wahlstrom, RW, NYI (RW42)
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James Gordon
